A layman’s guide to Attribution Models

The understanding of attribution models requires a basic knowledge of some digital marketing jargons and concepts. Let us quickly go through some of them.

Ad

A short description of a product or an idea or an event aimed to create an awareness for a particular brand, strategically.

Campaign

A collection of ads through which an agency wants to convey an idea or a message to the users. It generally has a theme around it; aimed at creating an appeal for a set of products to target users.

View or Impression Event

Whenever a user sees an ad; a view or an impression event is triggered.

Click Event

Whenever a user clicks on an ad; click event is triggered.

Conversion Event

Whenever a user makes some sort of transaction; i.e., buying a product, downloading an app, filling a form etc., conversion event is triggered.

User Journey

It is a series and timeline of views and clicks which led to a particular conversion. It can also be termed as the path to conversion.

To visualize everything, consider this example:

I want to buy a mobile phone; so I randomly googled ‘best mobile phone under 30k’; google showed an ad for a device called Moto Z play. I clicked on it and went through its specs but I decided against buying it due to some reason.

Now that google knows my history; it will keep showing me relevant ads even on some third party sites. I encountered one of those ads but didn’t click on it. After a week or so; an ad popped up on my facebook newsfeed that there is a 20% discount on Moto Z play on amazon, at this moment I decided to buy. So I clicked on this facebook ad and was about to buy this product from amazon; but before that, I checked for discount coupons on Coupon-Dunia, and finally, I bought the product for 25k.

User journey for this particular conversion will be something like this: Click1 (Google, Campaign1, Ad1), View1 (Display, Campaign2, Ad2), View2 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad3), Click3 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad4), View3 (Display, Campaign4, Ad5) -> Conversion (Amazon, Revenue:25000)

Now that we have a basic idea about ads, campaigns, impressions/views, clicks, conversions and user journey; we can dive deeper into attribution.

What is attribution?

In simple terms, the process of identifying which ad/ campaign led to conversion is called attribution. Attribution is necessary to understand how your ads/campaigns are performing on different search, social, and display networks; using this insight you can plan the budget allocation and targeting rules for different campaigns. It gives a clear picture in terms of ROI and lead generation.

Attribution can be performed using different models; these models can be categorized into two types: 1) Single-Touch Models and 2) Multi-Touch Models

Single-Touch Models

The philosophy of single-touch models is very simple; attribute the conversion to only one event; either the first event or the last event. These are generally ‘click only‘ models; views are not given credit for the conversions.

First-Touch (First-Click)

The entire credit for the conversion will go to the first event in this model. In our case, if we consider the above user journey; entire conversion weight and revenue will be distributed to Click1 (Google, Campaign1, Ad1).

Last-Touch (Last-Click)

The entire credit for the conversion will go to the last event in this model. In our case, if we consider the above user journey; entire conversion weight and revenue will be distributed to Click3 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad4). If you look carefully at our user journey; the last event was View3 (Display, Campaign4, Ad5) but as this is a ‘click only‘ model we will give credit to the last click.

So this is all about single-touch models; they are very easy to understand and fairly easy to implement. It makes sense when your use case is simple and you are using singular campaigns on a fixed network. It is not reliable when multiple engines and multiple campaigns are involved; the weight and revenue distribution, in this case, will not give you correct insight on your ad/campaign performance vs spending!

Multi-Touch Models

Multi-Touch models credit each and every event (both clicks and views) that leads to conversion. Weight distribution varies from model to model, but it validates the contribution of each event for conversion!

There are four commonly used multi-touch models: 1) Linear 2) U-Shape 3) Time-decay 4) Custom. We will go through them one by one in detail.

Linear

In Linear model, weights are evenly distributed amongst all the events. It gives an equal pie of revenue to each ad/campaign which contributed to conversion.

Linear model weight distribution with graph

In our case, there are total 5 events; two clicks and three views, each of these events will get an equal weight and the corresponding ad/campaign will get fifth part of revenue!

U-Shape

In U-shape model, weights are assigned in the ratio of 40-20-40; it means that the first and last event will get 40% weight and the remaining events will get an equal distribution of 20% weight.

U-Shape model weight distribution with graph

In our case, Click1 (Google, Campaign1, Ad1) and View3 (Display, Campaign4, Ad5) will get 40% each. View1 (Display, Campaign2, Ad2), View2 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad3) and Click3 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad4) will get (20/3)% each!

This model is quite unique as compared to above models; it gives more credit to edge events, edge events are the ones which actually starts or stops a user journey. So from a campaign strategy perspective, these are the events which actually called for an action in the real sense.

Time-decay

In Time-decay model, the weight of the event is inversely proportional to the time difference between the event date and conversion date. In other words, the event closer the conversion will get higher weights and the event further to the conversion will get lesser weights.

Time-decay model weight distribution with graph

In our case, Click1 (Google, Campaign1, Ad1), View1 (Display, Campaign2, Ad2), View2 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad3), Click3 (Facebook, Campaign3, Ad4), View3 (Display, Campaign4, Ad5) will get credit in increasing order; i.e., Click1<View1<View2<Click3<View3.

From a theoretical viewpoint, Time-decay seems to be the most sensible weight distribution mechanism! But in reality, the model selection depends on the type of business, type of product, and use-case of the client. For some businesses, U-Shape will make more sense while for other Time-Decay will be more preferable.

Custom

There are times when a certain business solution or strategy would require meticulous analytics information. U-Shape and Time-Decay are used widely for attribution but they may not be enough! At this point, if we want to dive one level deeper we can design a custom model, which may assign weights according to the type of events, campaigns and ads, it may also consider the timeline of the events.

Sometimes there are events which do not lead to conversion; these are called negative paths. We can use this data to design a custom algorithm which assigns and updates weights at entity (engine, campaign, ad) levels depending upon the event type (click or view).

There are some engines/ channels which are not that important in a user journey; it doesn’t matter whether this engine is a part of the path or not! In our case, last event View3 (Display, Campaign4, Ad5) was triggered because as a user I tried to find discount coupons on Coupon-Dunia; this event is relevant but doesn’t add value to the path because conversion would still happen even if this event is not present in the path! It still gets higher weights in Time-Decay and U-Shape. These discrepancies can be removed in the custom algorithmic model after we have enough data to find and connect these invisible dots!

Time-decay vs U-Shape vs Linear

To wrap things up, it is really difficult to say that a particular model is 100% perfect and efficient; you need to try and figure out which model works better for you. Ideally to derive optimum insights; a combination of two or three models should be tried and this data should be then used to design a custom algorithmic model to cater your needs!

Stay tuned for more insights!

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What is stopping you from being a KICKASS Developer?

This blog is about how to kick asses and how not to get our asses kicked!  I have tried to compile a list of things which may stop you directly or indirectly from being a kickass developer and hinder your desire to reach your full potential.

Many blogs will try to motivate you and explain to you what to do but I am here to warn you by sharing what not to do! (most of the things from my own learnings and personal experience :P)

  • Not planning your progress

Sometimes we are limited by our thoughts, ideologies, fears and inherent beliefs! Every developer has this phase when he is neither a senior and nor a junior anymore. This is the time when he has to plan things for himself. Once a wise guy suggested me that, you should not try to achieve each and everything simultaneously; pick your battles, fight them, struggle and shine! These battles should be carefully chosen; they should prepare you for BIGGER battles which you will face in near future some day!

some meme found over the internet!
some meme found over the internet!

You should accept that Rome was not built in a day!  If you try to do too many things in a single shot; you will eventually fail and feel demotivated. Set a target for yourself; plan a progressive scheme for yourself; divide the bigger task into smaller doable subtasks and then conquer! Slogging hard randomly will work for you on some occasions but if you really want to achieve something big in long run then plan your work; play your career like a Test match rather than a T20.

  • Just working on office stuff

We all work on tight schedules; there is always a possibility that we might have to work on office stuff or commitments even after office hours. Try to define this complex term called office hours.

It is always necessary to have a good work ethic but you should be selfish sometimes in terms of what you do after these office hours. This is your personal time; your sacred shell which can only be utilized for your personal goals.

This time can be utilized for developing your hobby, hitting a gym, playing recreational sport, biking or taking an online course to add or enhance a skill! This is very important because all round development is very important in long run. For example; if you are hitting a gym you should work on chest, biceps, legs, shoulders etc equally!

Each of your personal/ professional skill will connect the dots in your personality; they will complement each other and after some time eventually, you will be more groomed, confident and focused.

  • Not failing enough / not breaking things

What is more damaging than failure; it’s your fear to fail! When we get something good or when we become better as a person; we somehow become defensive of what we have achieved! This is a trap! Don’t fall into this trap! Failure is the greatest teacher; don’t fear to fail rather learn from it. You should know WHAT NOT TO DO in long run? 😛

breaakthings
some motivating shit from zuck!

Don’t care if people judge you or laugh at you! Do what you like and learn from your mistakes.

Shake, break and make something fruitful out of the situation!

  • Not having a perspective on anything / Not knowing things

Having a perspective on anything indirectly means that you know about something, you have tried learning that thing or at least heard about that thing from someone else.

Whenever a new task is assigned in terms of software development; managers and CTO’s look for the guys who have tried something on their own or someone who has at least some sort of the idea behind the new feature. So it’s important to know things and having an independent opinion. It is a quality of a thinking developer.

knowthings
I like him! So I am putting him on my blog for no apparent reason!
  • Comparing yourself with others (in a negative way)

It’s okay to feel intimidated sometimes; there will be always someone who knows more than you and do things better than you. Your aim is to bridge the gap and compete with yourself.

Try to outdo yourself every day; try to be better than what you were yesterday. Eventually, you will harness that confidence and skill set which will make you outstanding amongst others. Don’t get demotivated if you performed bad or if someone is better than you. Just keep working on yourself, and keep believing that you will shine one day.

  • Not challenging yourself enough

Sometimes we get too comfortable with our situation, surroundings and our own self! There is a saying that,

The one who sweats more in peace; bleeds less in war.

Life, job, and circumstances will always challenge you from time to time; you need to be ready for this war. Prepare yourself for this battle by practicing stuff when you have time; sharpen your swords, add some new weapons in your artillery, work on your stamina and be war-ready.

In the current context, try learning new programming languages, work on random algorithmic problems, publish apps, read and write blogs; all these things will add on to your knowledge, skill set, and confidence.
Try to achieve something complex; it’s okay if you fail. Keep improving; keep working on yourself!

challenge
some more motivation!
  • By allowing your personal life to affect your professional goals

On an average, most humans are irrational and emotional fools (unlike robots and aliens)! Our lives, emotions, mental well-being, physical strength, ability to make decisions, etc. is synchronized with each other.
If even one of these things goes wrong, it will directly or indirectly affect our performance and confidence. It’s hard to compartmentalize everything and keep everything disassociated.

giphy
Get your fucking shit together bro!

There will be times when things will be topsy-turvy; at this time you need to take a step back, calm down, realign your goals by prioritizing most important battles. Once you do this, back yourself, start working and hope for the best!

Buck up.. bitches!!!
Life is this… I like this! – Harvey Specter

Don’t deem yourself unworthy of anything; go for what you deserve. Don’t let the mediocrity creep into your lives! Get out in the real world and kick some asses (literally :P)

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